WRF微物理方案对四川一次强降水模拟的影响

Effect of Micro-physical Scheme on Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall Process in Sichuan

  • 摘要: 云物理过程是中尺度数值模式中最重要的非绝热加热物理过程之一,成云降雨过程发生以后通过感热、潜热和动量输送等反馈作用影响大尺度环流,并在决定大气温度、湿度场的垂直结构中起着关键作用,也是人们最为关心的降水预报的关键所在。因此在中尺度数值天气预报模式当中,更加准确的描述云物理过程将能够很大程度上提高模式预报降水能力。本文利用WRF模式,对2010年7月14~18日四川一次强降水过程进行了3组数值模拟实验,每组实验采用了不同的微物理参数化方案。方案的选取上主要采用了WRF模式3.0版本后加入的几种新方案,包括(1) WDM6方案(2) New Thompson方案(3) SBU-YLIN方案,在其他参数设置均相同的情况下,首先详细分析了在整个降水过程的各个阶段,3种方案下模式模拟结果与实况的差异,以及3种方案结果之间的差异。认为在降水初期,WDM6方案的模拟结果对比实况来看盆地东部降水中心偏南,而New Thompson方案和SBU-YLin方案模拟的雅安地区降水中心强度和范围都过大,但对于盆地东部的降水中心模拟较好,New Thompson方案对广元地区的降水模拟较实况偏弱。总体看来,New Thompson方案和SBU-YLin效果相当,WDM6略差。在大范围降水产生的时期,3种方案模拟的效果与实况都非常接近,只是各方案对乐山宜宾一线雨带的模拟都有不同程度的加强,使得这一线成了整个区域的最强的中心,其中SBU-YLin方案加强最大,New Thompson方案次之,而实际过程中这一时期最强中心还是在川东北一带。WDM6方案模拟降水强度与实况最为接近,但中心偏东。其中7月16日18时~17日06时是各方案模拟效果最好的一个时段。3种方案给出的的模拟结果相差并不大,较难得出哪种方案的结果最好的结论,但可以初步看出,对于本次降水量级的模拟来讲,WDM6方案模拟降水的量级较好,较少出现模拟过强的现象,而SBU-YLin方案通常模拟的降水中心强度都要大过实际;从降水落区上来看,SBU-YLin方案的表现较好,WDM6方案则有一定偏差。在这两方面New Thompson方案都介于以上两方案之间。最后初步分析了各方案模拟所得的水相参量,主要包括水汽、云水、云冰、雨、雪和霰粒子的混合比,认为造成各方案之间降水差异的原因,主要是各方案处理云水粒子的差别造成。

     

    Abstract: Cloud physics is one of the most important non-adiabatic heating processes in mesoscale numerical model.Cloud and the occurrence of rainfall take effect on large-scale circulation as feedback through the sensible heat,latent heat and momentum transfer effects,and play a key role in determining the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature and humidity.Also it is the things that people are most concerned about precipitation forecast.Therefore,accurately description of cloud physics will improve the capability of precipitation forecasting in mesoscale numerical weather prediction models greatly.In this paper,we choose 3 microphysics parameterization schemes that was new in WRF model after version 3.0 and use them to simulate a heavy rainfall process in Sichuan on 14-18 July,2010 respectively.The 3 schemes include WDM6 scheme,New Thompson scheme and SBU-YLIN scheme.First we analyze the difference between the real stat and the 3 experiments,and the differences between the 3 experiments in the entire precipitation process.In the early precipitation stage,to the center of the precipitation in the eastern Sichuan basin,WDM6 scheme's result is on southern side a little compared with the real,the results of New Thompson's scheme and SBU-YLin seem good.New Thompson's result is a little weak compare to real in the precipitation of Guangyuan area.Overall,New Thompson scheme and SBU-YLin scheme are good and quite near,WDM6 scheme slightly worse in the early stage of the case.In the period of wide range of precipitation occurred,the effect of the 3 schemes are very close.And the simulation of the3 schemes all strengthen the rainband from Leshan to Yibin,the result from 18:00 July 16th to 06:00 July 17th is the best.WDM6 scheme is the best in simulate the magnitude of the rainfall.For the precipitation area simulation,SBU-YLin scheme is the best.New Thompson scheme's capability is between the other 2 schemes.At last,we analyzed why there is difference between 3 schemes,which maybe the treatment of the water particles differently.

     

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